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Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, 4-8 may 1998 |
VULNERABILITY OF DIFFERENT SECTORS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND INFORMATION USER NEEDS
Many sectors are vulnerable to climate variability in West Africa. A number of studies by international, national, and regional organizations make clear the seriousness of the problem of intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation in West Africa. Particular attention must be paid to spatial variation in precipitation. It has been demonstrated that growing season in certain regions decreased. Among the sectors most effected by climactic variability are food security, natural resources especially water resources, health, and transport.
A. Why is the food security sector the most vulnerable?
Because the agricultural sector is the most important
employer in West Africa. It is also the sector the most dependent on climate
among all the human activities. Climate variability has been, and continues
to be the principal cause of fluctuation of food production in West Africa.
Throughout history, extreme climate events have provoked disasters in the
agricultural systems of West Africa. Also in conjunction with other physical,
social, and politico-economic factors, climate variability contributes
to the vulnerability of economic performance, hunger, famine and rural
exodus. In the last two decades, growth rate of cereal production in certain
West African countries has been out paced by population growth. The mean
available calories expressed in percentage of minimum daily requirements
is less than 100 in most of the countries of the region and thus the problems
of food insecurity. Chronic mal-nutrition has become more acute in the
last two decades in spite of programs and policies meant to resolve the
problem. In the food security sector, climate forecasting could contribute
significantly to agricultural production, fishing, harvest preservation,
population movements, animal husbandry, and the transfer of cereals between
surplus and deficient areas. In the short-, mid-, and long- term, user
needs from climate prediction for agricultural production that have been
expressed in the pre-forums were then confirmed by the PRESAO FORUM, as
follows:
The date of the start of the rainy season in order
to facilitate species selection, identifying zones at risk, etc.…
B. Natural resources
Natural resources constitutes the second sector that is vulnerable to climate variability because the increased rate of deforestation is rising. Open forests disappear faster than closed forests. Over exploitation of the soils and land degradation are another problem. User needs from climate forecasting include medium- and long- term forecasts for forest growth, a better understanding of climactic variation for optimal utilization of natural resources and their long- term sustainability, and the stability of rural populations to limit population movements to urban centers. User needs, from climate forecasting to effective protection of water resources, includes above all seasonal precipitation forecasts in hydrologic models for the vast West African basins, for example the Senegal river, the upper basin of the Niger river, the Volta, etc… Information on the temporal distribution of rains during the rainy season and their many effects on the basins is another important need. For an effective management of water resources, irrigated agriculture all along the rivers must not only be for meeting the food needs of the populations, but also as protection against floods, for example Sélingué on the Niger river and Manantali on the Senegal river.
C. Climate Variation And Public Health
The third sector vulnerable to climate variation is public health. The climate of West Africa has a clear impact on health and the well being of the population because the temperature are constantly very high, and the dust in the atmosphere persists for six months of the year. In the humid zones, floods and high humidity create conditions favorable for the proliferation of flies and mosquitoes.
D. Transport Sector
The forth sector vulnerable to climactic variability is the transport sector. All means of transport including terrestrial, marine, and aerial are effected by climate. Climate forecasting can be useful for effective decision making regarding transport and reduce transportation costs. During periods of drought and famine, vulnerability assessment and mapping require climatic information.